February 13, 2025
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Politics Rwanda South Africa

How Cyril Ramaphosa’s air power could crush Paul Kagame’s forces

South Africa vs Rwanda

Lagos, Nigeria – In African geopolitics, air superiority is the defining factor in modern warfare. Military strategists agree: “Whoever controls the skies controls the battlefield.” In the event of a direct conflict between South Africa and Rwanda, Pretoria’s overwhelming aerial dominance would leave Kigali at a severe disadvantage.

 

AfricaHeadline Reports Team
editorial@africaheadline.com 

 

The South African Air Force (SAAF) boasts the most advanced combat aircraft on the continent, with the JAS 39 Gripen as its crown jewel. This fourth-generation fighter jet is one of Africa’s most lethal weapons, capable of flying at twice the speed of sound and equipped with cutting-edge electronic warfare systems. Against any regional adversary, it is a formidable asset.

Complementing the Gripen fleet is the locally developed ROIFOC attack helicopter. Battle-proven and highly effective, the ROIFOC played a crucial role in neutralising the M23 rebel group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 2013. If deployed again, it would provide South Africa with undisputed dominance in the air.

By contrast, Rwanda’s air force is modest and largely reliant on a small fleet of Russian-built attack helicopters, including the Mi-24 and the more advanced Mi-35. While useful for close air support, these helicopters are no match for South Africa’s supersonic Gripens in a conventional war.

More crucially, Rwanda lacks a modern fighter fleet. In an aerial confrontation, its forces would be unable to contest South Africa’s air dominance. Without proper air defence systems, Rwanda’s ground forces would be dangerously exposed to relentless airstrikes.

The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC has demonstrated the increasing role of drones and surface-to-air missiles in African warfare. The M23 rebels, widely believed to be backed by Rwanda, have reportedly deployed advanced Chinese-made air defence systems. A year ago, reports surfaced of a missile being fired at a UN surveillance drone, raising concerns about the rebels’ ability to operate such sophisticated weaponry.

Meanwhile, the Congolese army is said to be operating Chinese-made attack drones, while the M23 rebels have deployed Turkish-manufactured drones. This marks a significant escalation in what was previously a low-tech conflict. However, even with these technological advancements, they remain no match for the sheer firepower of South Africa’s air fleet.

Despite its clear technical superiority, South Africa would face logistical challenges in deploying its air force deep into central Africa. Operating Gripens and ROIFOCs so far from home would require significant logistical support, including air-to-air refuelling and forward bases in allied nations. However, given its military experience in international peacekeeping operations, the SAAF has the expertise to overcome such hurdles.

Conversely, Rwanda lacks any long-range military projection capabilities. Its forces are structured for rapid response within the Great Lakes region but would struggle to sustain a prolonged conflict against a superior opponent. In the event of open war, Kagame’s forces would be swiftly overwhelmed by South Africa’s air power.

Should a conflict erupt between South Africa and Rwanda, Pretoria’s air superiority would ensure a swift and decisive victory. With no viable means to challenge South Africa in the skies, Rwanda’s military would be vulnerable to relentless aerial bombardment, leaving its ground forces in disarray.

Equipped with cutting-edge technology, a battle-hardened air force, and the most advanced fighter jets on the continent, South Africa stands as Africa’s leading military power. If war were to break out, Ramaphosa’s forces would dominate the battlefield—without setting foot on Rwandan soil.

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