A legacy of missed potential
Once a global empire, Portugal now struggles to maintain meaningful relationships with its most strategic former colonies: Brazil, Angola, and Mozambique. A lack of vision in geopolitics and economics, compounded by unassertive policies, has turned what could have been a robust network of alliances into a narrative of missed opportunities and fragmented ties.
Brazil, the largest economy in the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) and an emerging global power, maintains a lukewarm relationship with Portugal. Despite deep historical and cultural ties, the bilateral relationship has failed to evolve into a strong strategic partnership. Portugal’s inability to position itself as a relevant ally to Brazil—either within the European Union or in multilateral forums—has been a major stumbling block.
Trade numbers underscore the unfulfilled potential. In 2023, Brazilian exports to Portugal amounted to $4.24 billion, led by crude oil, soybeans, and aircraft, which accounted for 63% of total exports. However, exports from Brazil to the CPLP declined during the same period, reflecting weakening ties.
Meanwhile, Brazil imported $1.77 billion worth of goods from CPLP countries, dominated by crude oil, virgin olive oil, and aircraft components, which collectively made up 61% of the import value. The figures reveal a narrow and undiversified trade relationship that fails to reflect the economic powerhouses both nations could be.
Portugal has also failed to advocate for Brazil’s interests in the EU or leverage its shared linguistic and cultural ties to promote a deeper economic and political relationship. In contrast, Spain has successfully cemented its influence in Latin America by fostering stronger trade and diplomatic connections.
Angola, a country with vast oil and gas reserves and one of Africa’s most promising economies, should be a cornerstone of Portugal’s foreign policy. Yet, the relationship remains unbalanced, with Portuguese companies dominating key sectors in Angola while investments are often perceived as exploitative and one-sided.
In 2023, Portuguese exports to Angola reached €1.2 billion, making Angola the top destination for Portuguese goods among Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP). Angola, in turn, exported €271 million worth of goods to Portugal, primarily crude oil, consolidating its position as the largest supplier among PALOP nations. Despite these numbers, the bilateral relationship remains fraught.
Angola’s unresolved official debt to Portugal continues to strain negotiations, and Portuguese businesses often fail to engage in reciprocal investment that benefits Angola’s local economy.
Compounding the challenges, Angola’s increasing alignment with China has further diluted Portugal’s influence. Chinese investments in Angola, particularly in infrastructure and energy, dwarf those from Portugal, showcasing Lisbon’s inability to compete in a globalized economic arena.
Mozambique, endowed with significant natural resources, especially in energy, represents another missed opportunity for Portugal. Promises of strategic partnerships and technological transfers have mostly remained unfulfilled, leaving room for other international players to step in.
Portuguese exports to Mozambique totaled €214.3 million in 2023, with imports amounting to €35.2 million. While these figures highlight some level of trade, they pale in comparison to Mozambique’s potential, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG), a sector attracting significant investments from the United States, France, and China. Portugal has played a negligible role in tapping into these opportunities.
Additionally, Mozambique’s struggles with political instability and security crises, such as the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, have seen Portugal remain on the sidelines. Unlike France or the United States, which have supported Mozambique with targeted aid and military assistance, Portugal’s contributions have been sporadic and insufficient to address the nation’s growing challenges.
Portugal’s failures with Brazil, Angola, and Mozambique are symptomatic of a broader absence of strategy. The country appears anchored to its historical legacy, unable to reframe its relationships to address contemporary economic and geopolitical realities.
Portugal’s membership in the European Union, while advantageous, has also restricted its autonomy in fostering independent alliances with its former colonies. The country has shown little initiative in pursuing large-scale infrastructure projects, fostering technological innovation, or addressing key issues like energy security and education reform in these nations. Moreover, the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) has remained more of a cultural consortium than a platform for economic and political advancement.
The lack of vision has left Portugal trailing behind nations like Spain and France, which have leveraged their historical ties to build strong economic and diplomatic inroads in Africa and Latin America. Without a coordinated and forward-thinking approach, Portugal risks becoming increasingly irrelevant on the global stage.
Portugal’s relationships with Brazil, Angola, and Mozambique remain an emblem of missed potential. In a multipolar world, where historical connections could serve as a springboard for influence, Lisbon’s passive stance has left its former colonies forging ties elsewhere.
For Portugal to reclaim relevance, it must adopt a proactive and visionary approach. Building equitable partnerships that prioritize mutual economic growth, technological advancement, and strategic collaboration is not just an option—it is a necessity. Without such efforts, Portugal risks fading further into the background, its rich history reduced to an unfulfilled legacy. The question remains: how much longer can Portugal afford to squander its past?
