Lagos, Nigeria – South Africa is projected to temporarily take the lead as Africa’s largest economy in 2024, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasted at $401 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This puts the country ahead of Nigeria, expected to record a GDP of $395 billion, and Egypt, projected at $358 billion during the same period.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is grappling with high inflation, currency devaluation, and declining oil production. Since assuming office in 2023, President Bola Tinubu has enacted major economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, which saved billions in public expenditure, and the restructuring of the foreign exchange system to stabilize financial markets. However, inflation remains stubbornly high at around 21.5%, with economic growth forecasted at 3.1% in 2024.
Egypt is also facing economic hurdles, particularly a currency crisis that led to multiple devaluations of the Egyptian pound since 2022. To address these issues, the government secured a $3 billion IMF bailout, tied to commitments such as a flexible exchange rate and economic reforms. Efforts to attract foreign investment through privatization and tax incentives have been stepped up, aiming to bolster growth, which is expected to reach 4.2% in 2024, with an upward trend to 5% by 2026.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s anticipated leadership in GDP rankings comes despite persistent challenges, including rolling blackouts and infrastructure deficits. Economic growth is projected at a modest 1.8% in 2024. To address its energy crisis, the government is expanding renewable energy projects and partnering with private firms to modernize power grids. However, unemployment remains alarmingly high at 32.6%, hindering broader economic progress.
Experts highlight that South Africa’s economic leadership will be short-lived, with Nigeria set to reclaim the top spot in 2025, followed by Egypt in 2026. The shifting dynamics reflect internal economic policies, structural challenges, and the impact of global economic conditions. Despite common obstacles such as economic diversification and infrastructure deficits, robust reforms and coordinated efforts could pave the way for sustainable growth across the continent in the years ahead.
