Johannesburg, South Africa – South Africa’s first-ever coalition government, led by the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), is faltering under the weight of internal tensions and the absence of a formal legal framework to manage power-sharing arrangements. The coalition, forged in the aftermath of the country’s closely contested 2024 general election, is struggling to reconcile ideological differences while navigating uncharted political territory.
The 2024 general election marked a seismic shift in South African politics. For the first time since the end of apartheid, the ANC fell below the critical 50% threshold, securing just 40.2% of the vote. With no outright majority, the ruling party was forced to enter into an unlikely alliance with the DA, which garnered 22% of the national vote, alongside smaller parties including the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA).
The coalition agreement, formalised in June 2024, was intended to provide a roadmap for stability. However, a lack of codified rules for coalition governments has left the alliance vulnerable to internal disputes and power struggles.
Disputed Cabinet Allocations, the DA reportedly demanded ten key cabinet positions, including Finance, Justice, and the Deputy Presidency. However, the ANC has only offered five, resulting in months of contentious negotiations and delayed government formation.
Policy Clashes, stark policy differences have further strained the partnership. The ANC’s preference for state-led economic strategies is at odds with the DA’s liberal market-oriented approach. Issues such as privatisation of failing state-owned enterprises and energy reforms remain contentious.
Weak Conflict Resolution Mechanisms, without a legal framework to arbitrate disputes, coalition leaders are left relying on ad hoc negotiations that often fail to produce lasting solutions.
The challenges faced by the coalition have reignited calls for South Africa to legislate the management of coalition governments. The DA, as early as 2023, proposed a Private Member’s Bill to introduce binding rules for coalition structures, inspired by international examples. Yet, little progress has been made, with the ANC hesitant to prioritise the matter.
Political analysts warn that the absence of a legal framework leaves coalition governments at risk of becoming dysfunctional. “A failure to establish clear rules could undermine public trust in coalition governance and destabilise South Africa’s democracy,” said Professor Thandi Moyo, a political scientist at the University of Johannesburg.
The coalition’s internal struggles are beginning to take their toll on governance. Key initiatives, including a post-pandemic economic recovery plan and much-needed reforms in the energy sector, have been delayed. South Africans continue to endure prolonged power cuts, exacerbating public dissatisfaction with the government.
Meanwhile, opposition parties, most notably the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), are capitalising on the coalition’s shortcomings. EFF leader Julius Malema recently described the partnership as “an ideological mismatch doomed to fail.”
With growing discontent among both the public and coalition members, speculation of an early election is mounting. However, analysts argue that dissolving the coalition would only deepen South Africa’s political uncertainty and economic woes. “The coalition’s survival depends on compromise and a commitment to drafting a legal framework that can provide the clarity needed to govern effectively,” Moyo added.
For now, all eyes are on the coalition leadership as they attempt to bridge their differences and provide the stability South Africa urgently needs. Whether this unlikely alliance can weather the storm remains to be seen.
