Rising Afrophobia could cost the ANC its political soul, and reshape South Africa’s future

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By AfricaHeadline

South Africa is entering one of the most politically sensitive periods since the end of apartheid. As anti-immigrant sentiment intensifies ahead of nationwide protests scheduled for June 30, a growing debate is emerging over the political consequences of Afrophobia for the party that led the country’s liberation struggle: the African National Congress (ANC).

According to a discussion paper released by the Thabo Mbeki Foundation, the ANC risks becoming one of the biggest casualties of the country’s increasingly hostile attitude toward African migrants. The reason is deeply rooted in history: the party’s identity was built on Pan-African solidarity.

For decades, countries including Angola, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and many others provided sanctuary to South African exiles, offered military training, diplomatic backing, and financial assistance during the struggle against apartheid. Without that continental support, the ANC’s path to power in 1994 would have been far more difficult, today, however, that historic legacy is facing one of its greatest tests.

Immigration has become a defining political issue

Over the past several years, immigration has moved from the margins of South Africa’s political debate to its center.

Persistently high unemployment—particularly among young people—rising crime, mounting pressure on public services, and sluggish economic growth have created fertile ground for nationalist narratives that blame foreign nationals for many of the country’s domestic challenges.

Groups such as Operation Dudula and other anti-immigration movements have gained prominence by demanding stricter enforcement against undocumented migrants, particularly those from elsewhere on the African continent.

Political parties across the spectrum have responded by hardening their rhetoric on immigration, hoping to capture voters increasingly frustrated by the country’s economic hardships.

The ANC’s historic dilemma

It is precisely here that the ANC faces its greatest challenge, the Thabo Mbeki Foundation argues that yielding to populist pressure could place the governing party in direct conflict with the very principles that defined its liberation movement.

The Foundation warns that growing Afrophobia risks isolating the ANC from the same African nations whose political, diplomatic, and material support helped sustain South Africa’s struggle for freedom.

This is not merely a moral question—it is also a strategic one.

South Africa remains one of Africa’s largest investors, a leading member of the African Union, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and BRICS, and continues to position itself as a gateway for international investment into the continent.

A political climate increasingly hostile toward African migrants could weaken Pretoria’s diplomatic influence and undermine its longstanding claim to continental leadership.

The shadow of the 2024 election

The debate comes at a particularly vulnerable moment for the ANC. In the May 2024 general election, the party suffered its worst electoral performance since the advent of democracy, losing its parliamentary majority for the first time in three decades.

The result forced the ANC into a Government of National Unity, fundamentally reshaping South Africa’s political landscape.

In its own post-election assessment, the party acknowledged that much of its decline could be traced to the presidency of Jacob Zuma, a period associated with widespread corruption scandals, declining institutional trust, and growing public dissatisfaction.

The ANC now faces the difficult task of rebuilding voter confidence without abandoning the Pan-African values that once defined both its domestic legitimacy and international standing.

Populism Versus Pan-Africanism

South Africa is not alone in experiencing a surge in anti-immigration politics, across the world, economic uncertainty has fueled nationalist movements that increasingly portray migrants as the source of domestic problems, South Africa’s case, however, carries a unique historical contradiction.

While many African countries welcomed and protected South African freedom fighters during apartheid, many of their citizens today face discrimination, violence, and exclusion inside democratic South Africa.

This contradiction threatens one of the country’s most valuable diplomatic assets: its moral authority as a champion of African solidarity.

A Defining Test for South Africa’s Leadership

The central question now is whether the ANC can successfully balance two competing political realities.

On one hand, South Africans have legitimate concerns regarding illegal immigration, unemployment, border management, and public security. On the other, responding to those concerns through xenophobic rhetoric risks undermining decades of diplomatic credibility and regional cooperation. The outcome will shape far more than the ANC’s electoral prospects.

It will determine whether South Africa continues to lead Africa through cooperation and shared development—or retreats into an increasingly inward-looking nationalism.

If the ANC embraces populist anti-immigration politics, it risks sacrificing much of the moral authority it earned during the anti-apartheid struggle.

If, instead, it pursues a balanced immigration policy grounded in the rule of law, regional cooperation, and Pan-African values, it may yet transform a political crisis into an opportunity to reaffirm South Africa’s leadership on the continent.

History has already demonstrated that African solidarity was indispensable to South Africa’s liberation. The challenge facing the ANC today is proving that those same ideals remain compatible with governing a modern democracy while responding to legitimate domestic concerns.

In many ways, the future of South Africa’s leadership in Africa may depend on that answer.