Ghana records 5.3% growth in first quarter, but fragile recovery persists

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Accra, 17 August 2025

Ghana’s economy expanded by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst expectations and reinforcing early signs of recovery following years of economic turmoil. Growth was driven primarily by a robust performance in the non-oil sector, which expanded by 6.8%, fuelled by increased public investment, stronger domestic consumption, and improved macroeconomic management.

Inflation, which had exceeded 50% in 2022, fell to 13.7% in June, the lowest level in four years. The government revised its fiscal deficit target from 4.1% to 3.8% of GDP after posting a budget surplus of 1.1% in the first half of the year, outperforming the initial projection of a 2.4% deficit.

Market confidence has improved markedly. Fitch Ratings recently upgraded Ghana’s credit rating to B‑, lifting the country out of restricted default status, a significant step for a nation undergoing debt restructuring under an IMF-backed programme.

Despite the positive indicators, authorities warn of ongoing vulnerabilities. The Bank of Ghana continues to advocate for a cautious monetary policy stance to sustain growth without reigniting inflationary pressures. Central bank governor Johnson Asiama emphasised the need for restraint, even as the cedi appreciated by more than 40% and the country recorded a $5.6 billion trade surplus.

Ghana’s 5.3% growth offers hope of economic stabilisation, but risks remain. Continued fiscal discipline, inflation control, and political stability will be critical to translating short-term gains into long-term resilience.