The 2024 presidential race has reached a critical point, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a virtual tie in the polls. While many experts predict that the Vice President faces challenges due to traditional fundamentals, such as President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and voter pessimism about the country’s direction, a deeper analysis of U.S. election history reveals an optimistic outlook for Harris. With concrete data and favorable historical precedents, her campaign has strong reasons to believe she can defy expectations and defeat Trump.
Since his victory in 2016, Donald Trump has remained a polarizing and unpopular figure for a significant portion of the electorate. Despite winning the Electoral College, he lost the popular vote by over 2.8 million votes in 2016. In 2020, the rejection was even more pronounced, as Trump was defeated by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris by a margin of over 7 million popular votes.
Trump continues to hold high disapproval ratings among women, minorities, and independent voters — key groups that Harris and the Democrats have historically mobilized. These voters were decisive in 2020, and there is little indication that these trends have shifted. In fact, polls show that Harris is viewed more favorably than Trump across much of the country, which could prove crucial in swing states and among undecided voters.
In the 2020 election, Harris and Biden secured the majority of the female and minority votes. About 57% of women opted for the Democratic ticket, while Trump lagged significantly behind in this segment. Additionally, Democrats captured 87% of the Black vote and 65% of the Hispanic vote. This strong base of support is a crucial asset that Kamala Harris can further build upon in 2024.
As the first Black and South Asian woman to be nominated for the presidency, Harris represents a significant milestone in American politics. Her candidacy inspires voters who have historically felt underrepresented, offering a narrative of inclusion and social justice that continues to resonate deeply. At a time when civil rights and racial equity are central issues, Harris has the potential to expand this base of support.
The 2022 midterm elections provided a tangible example of how traditional fundamentals can be challenged. At that time, Biden’s approval ratings were low, and only 26% of Americans believed the country was on the right track. Nevertheless, Democrats managed to limit their losses in the House and, surprisingly, expanded their majority in the Senate. They also captured key gubernatorial seats in states like Arizona and Maryland.
These results were largely driven by voter rejection of Trump and the mobilization around the issue of abortion. These two factors remain highly relevant in 2024, offering Harris the opportunity to consolidate a coalition similar to the one that secured Democratic success two years ago.
Since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, reproductive rights have become one of the most polarizing issues in American politics. In several states, such as Michigan and Kentucky, pro-abortion measures won by overwhelming margins at the ballot box, demonstrating the power of this issue to mobilize voters. Harris, a staunch advocate for women’s rights, has a unique opportunity to capitalize on widespread dissatisfaction with the loss of these protections.
With reproductive rights ranking among the top concerns for voters in critical states, Harris is well-positioned to attract both progressive and moderate voters, creating a broad support base that could be decisive for her campaign.
In the 2020 election, the Harris-Biden ticket won approximately 60% of the vote among voters under 30. This group is becoming increasingly representative and largely disapproves of Trump’s conservative policies, particularly on issues like climate change, racial equality, and social justice.
Kamala Harris’ progressive platform directly addresses the concerns of these young voters. With youth voter turnout on the rise in recent elections, this trend is likely to continue benefiting Democrats, and Harris could expand this support even further in 2024.
Although Joe Biden faces disapproval ratings above 50%, history shows that these metrics are not always decisive in election outcomes. In 1948, for example, Harry Truman defied all predictions and won the presidency, despite facing significant disapproval. Similarly, in 2012, Barack Obama was reelected despite a still fragile economy and high unemployment rates.
If Harris can replicate the voter mobilization that Democrats demonstrated in 2020 and 2022, especially among women, youth, and minorities, she can challenge traditional trends and achieve a significant victory. Trump’s continued disapproval among large portions of the electorate, combined with Harris’ ability to energize key voting blocs, presents a real window of opportunity for her to exceed expectations.
Kamala Harris is uniquely positioned to defeat Donald Trump in the 2024 election, despite the traditional obstacles she faces. Trump’s continued rejection, Harris’ strong support from women, minorities, and young voters, and the centrality of abortion rights create fertile ground for her success.
Moreover, recent U.S. election history demonstrates that traditional fundamentals can be overcome, particularly when social justice and civil rights issues galvanize the electorate. If Harris and her team can replicate the formula that secured victory in 2020 and midterm success in 2022, she will be well-positioned to secure a historic win in November.
The 2024 election promises to be one of the most unpredictable events in modern U.S. history, but Harris has all the tools needed to defy the odds and carve a strong path to the White House.
