Burundi’s growth rebound has yet to put inflation to rest

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Coffee and gold exports helped lift growth to 4.2% in 2025, while tighter fiscal and monetary policies brought inflation down from its April peak. But prices are expected to rise again this year, and shortages and foreign-exchange constraints remain a drag on the outlook.

LAGOS – Burundi’s economy grew 4.2% in 2025, according to the IMF’s latest Article IV assessment, with stronger coffee and gold exports supporting the rebound. The figure is higher than the World Bank’s earlier estimate of about 4%, reflecting different data vintages and revisions. The IMF now forecasts growth of 3.9% in 2026.

The improvement in output coincided with a sharp retreat in inflation, after reaching about 45.5% year on year in April 2025, inflation fell to 8.6% in April 2026, the IMF said. Tighter fiscal policy and a halt to central-bank financing of the government helped slow money growth and ease price pressures.

That disinflation may prove temporary, the Fund expects average inflation of 14.5% in 2026, as base effects and higher fuel prices push the rate up again, the forecast highlights the distinction between the recent fall in year-on-year inflation and the average rate projected for the full year.

Export earnings have also improved foreign-exchange inflows, but the economy remains exposed to supply constraints and external shocks.

Fuel and fertilizer costs, weaker export prices, or delays in reforms could undermine the outlook, the IMF also flags election-related fiscal slippage ahead of Burundi’s 2027 polls as a risk to the consolidation that helped bring inflation down.

The central question is whether stronger exports and tighter policies can translate into sustained gains in household purchasing power and private investment. For now, Burundi’s growth is recovering, but the IMF’s inflation forecast suggests price stability remains fragile.

Data note: 2025 growth is the IMF’s latest estimate; 2026 figures are forecasts, not outturns. The World Bank’s earlier estimate for 2025 was about 4%.