November 9, 2024
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Niger Politics

Niger’s military leader in a time of uncertainty

TOPSHOT – This video frame grab image obtained by AFP from ORTN – Télé Sahel on July 28, 2023 shows General Abdourahamane Tchiani, Niger’s new strongman, speaking on national television and reads a statement as “President of the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Fatherland”, after the ouster of President-elect Mohamed Bazoum. The chief of the Presidential Guard justifies the coup by evoking “the continued deterioration of the security situation” in the country, as well as “poor economic and social governance”. (Photo by ORTN – Télé Sahel / AFP)

Niamey – General Abdourahamane Tchiani emerged as the de facto leader of Niger following a military coup on July 26, 2023, overthrowing the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum. Tchiani, who previously served as the head of Niger’s Presidential Guard, now leads the junta, officially known as the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP). His rise to power reflects growing dissatisfaction within the military and the nation’s broader frustrations with insecurity, corruption, and dependency on Western powers.

Tchiani justified the coup by pointing to rising insecurity, as Niger struggles with insurgencies by Islamist extremists near its borders with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria. He blamed President Bazoum’s administration for failing to protect the population and allowing foreign forces, particularly French troops, to dominate Niger’s security strategy.

The junta’s swift seizure of power was met with mixed reactions: while some civilians welcomed the military’s promise to restore order, others condemned the overthrow of a democratically elected government. Regional bodies, such as ECOWAS, responded with strong condemnation, threatening sanctions and military intervention if the military did not step down and restore civilian rule.

Since taking power, Tchiani has emphasized the need for stability and security before holding democratic elections. However, the junta has not provided a clear timeline for the promised transition to civilian governance, raising concerns about the possibility of prolonged military rule.

The new regime has restricted political activities and arrested opponents, drawing criticism for curbing civil liberties. At the same time, the junta has worked to consolidate power, reshuffling military leadership and promoting loyalists to key positions within the government.

Under Tchiani, Niger has shifted its foreign alliances, aligning more closely with other military-led governments in Burkina Faso and Mali. Together, the three nations have formed a regional security coalition, moving away from reliance on French and Western military support.

The expulsion of French troops from Niger in September 2023 marked a symbolic break with Niger’s traditional security partners. While the junta has hinted at exploring partnerships with Russia, no formal agreements have been announced yet. This shift in policy mirrors the broader trend of anti-Western sentiment sweeping across the Sahel region, as countries seek new paths toward sovereignty and self-determination.

Niger country profile - BBC News

Tchiani’s government faces severe economic challenges. Following the coup, ECOWAS imposed economic sanctions, further straining Niger’s fragile economy. The disruption of trade, coupled with terrorist activities, has worsened food insecurity and displaced thousands of people, creating a growing humanitarian crisis.

Although Niger is rich in uranium reserves and has significant potential in agriculture, political instability and insecurity have made it difficult to attract investment and drive economic growth. The junta has expressed interest in diversifying partnerships and reducing dependence on Western countries, but progress remains limited due to the volatile situation.

Domestically, Tchiani enjoys some support from citizens frustrated with Niger’s previous leadership and its reliance on Western powers. However, public patience is not unlimited. Many Nigeriens are demanding improvements in security, economic conditions, and a return to civilian rule.

At the regional level, Niger faces intense pressure from ECOWAS, which has demanded the restoration of democracy. The possibility of a military intervention from ECOWAS remains on the table, heightening tensions and leaving the junta with limited options.

General Abdourahamane Tchiani now leads Niger at a critical crossroads, navigating security challenges, economic hardship, and shifting foreign alliances. While his leadership has resonated with some segments of the population, the junta’s unclear transition plan and growing isolation from regional and international partners pose serious risks to Niger’s future.

Tchiani’s ability to balance security efforts with governance reforms will determine whether he can stabilize the country and usher in a new era of political transition. However, without meaningful progress, the junta risks deepening the cycle of instability and alienating both the population and international partners.

As the 2024 transition deadline approaches, Niger stands at a defining moment. Whether Tchiani’s leadership will be remembered as a stabilizing force or as another chapter in the region’s prolonged turmoil depends on his ability to deliver results while guiding the country toward democracy and long-term peace.

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