THE SLOW FALL OF BIYA AND THE BATTLE FOR THE NATION’S FUTURE
By AfricaHeadline | Investigative Journalism Based on Local and International Sources
YAOUNDÉ, CAMEROON – After more than 42 years in power, President Paul Biya is facing one of the most critical moments of his presidency.
Équipe de reportages d’AfricaHeadline
editorial@africaheadline.com
What once seemed like an unshakable regime is now showing visible cracks: internal defections, mounting international pressure, economic crisis, armed conflict and uncertainty over succession. With elections scheduled for October 2025, Cameroon is approaching a historic crossroads and the system’s vulnerabilities are now fully exposed.
The recent defection of two longtime Biya loyalists, Bello Bouba Maigari and Issa Tchiroma Bakary, has rocked the regime. The two former ministers publicly broke ranks with the ruling elite, signaling the formation of a potential alternative political front. Both men were seen as strategic pillars of Biya’s coalition, especially in the northern regions, and their departure has deep political consequences.
Sources within the CPDM (ruling party) describe a climate of panic and mistrust. An emergency meeting called at the Etoudi Palace was reportedly marked by internal accusations and visible fractures. President Biya’s continued silence has only deepened the unease.
Several names have emerged in the looming battle to succeed Biya.
Franck Biya, the president’s son, is seen as the unofficial heir but faces internal resistance.
Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, Secretary-General of the Presidency, is a powerful behind-the-scenes operator trusted by military elites.
Joseph Dion Ngute, the current Prime Minister, presents a diplomatic profile but lacks popular support.
In the opposition camp, Maurice Kamto and Cabral Libii are the most credible electoral challengers to the regime.
The succession is now a question of national stability. Without a peaceful and clear transition, fears are rising of a power vacuum or military interference.
The political crisis is unfolding against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy. According to the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), Cameroon’s GDP growth dropped to 2.1 percent in the first half of 2025, with inflation hovering around 9 percent and youth unemployment surpassing 42 percent.
Hundreds of small and medium-sized businesses have closed, and foreign investors are holding back due to political uncertainty.
Cameroon’s youth, representing over 60 percent of the population, has become the driving force behind demands for change. Across universities, urban neighborhoods and on social media, the slogan “We are citizens, not subjects” has gone viral in protest against any attempt to impose a dynastic succession.
While the succession dominates headlines in Yaoundé, the conflict in the Anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions remains active and unresolved.
Over 20 armed attacks were recorded in June alone, according to the National Conflict Observatory. The lack of political engagement and continued militarization of the region are fueling radicalization.
Local human rights organizations warn that excluding Anglophone voices from the national conversation could push the country to the brink of civil breakdown.
A source at the National Commission on Human Rights told AfricaHeadline that if the transition is not inclusive, Cameroon could fracture irreparably.
International partners are now openly calling for an orderly transition. The European Union, United States, France and Germany have demanded independent election monitoring and warned that any manipulation of the electoral process could trigger sanctions or the suspension of cooperation agreements.
Leaked African Union documents obtained by AfricaHeadline reveal plans for a permanent political mission in Cameroon to support post-election stability should President Biya refuse to step down or announce a clear path forward.
With a divided ruling party, a mobilized youth, a reenergized opposition and regional instability, the countdown to October is ticking fast. The future of Cameroon is no longer solely in Biya’s hands. It now depends on whether the state has the courage to break with the past and allow the people to choose their destiny freely.
Professor Julius Mbah of the University of Buea said the biggest mistake now would be to artificially extend a regime that has lost both moral and political legitimacy.
