Guinea-Bissau’s economy set for 4.7% growth in 2024

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Guinea-Bissau has shown encouraging economic growth despite facing persistent structural challenges. In 2023, the country’s GDP grew by 4.3%, driven by strengthened agricultural production, particularly in rice.

Forecasts suggest further improvement in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 4.7%, increasing to 5.2% by 2025, as the economy diversifies and governance reforms take effect.

However, the economy remains heavily dependent on raw cashew nut exports, accounting for 90% of export value and supporting the livelihoods of 80% of the population, mostly smallholder farmers. This reliance makes Guinea-Bissau highly vulnerable to external shocks, such as fluctuating international prices and adverse weather conditions.

Fiscal challenges also persist, with the budget deficit increasing to 7.3% of GDP in 2023, accompanied by public debt exceeding 80% of GDP.

To sustain this growth trajectory, the government is focused on improving the business environment, boosting investments, and ensuring political stability. Inflation, which stood at 7.2% in 2023, is expected to decline to 5.4% in 2024, supported by tighter monetary policies. Additionally, the government aims to narrow the fiscal deficit and restore export performance to manage debt risks and promote economic stability moving forward​.