Russia, The United States, and The myth of the quick victory

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A strategic assessment of 21st-Century warfare

JOHANNESBURG — For much of the past three decades, military and political leaders have embraced the belief that technological superiority would enable major powers to achieve rapid, precise, and decisive victories. The emergence of precision-guided munitions, surveillance satellites, stealth aircraft, unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and advanced command-and-control networks reinforced the perception that warfare in the 21st century would be fundamentally different from the prolonged wars of attrition that characterised earlier eras.

However, the battlefields of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, and the broader Middle East have produced a different reality. Despite unprecedented technological advances, conflicts continue to be shaped by human, industrial, economic, political, and psychological factors. The accumulated experience of the early 21st century suggests that technological superiority alone neither guarantees the achievement of strategic objectives nor ensures rapid and sustainable victories.

A fundamental question therefore emerges: are the world’s leading powers confronting the true limits of conventional military power?

The end of the illusion of easy victory

The 1991 Gulf War created the perception that Western technological superiority had ushered in a new era of warfare. Within weeks, the U.S.-led coalition dismantled much of Iraq’s military capability through precision strikes and overwhelming air dominance.

Subsequent conflicts revealed a far more complex reality. In 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan and rapidly removed the Taliban from power. Two years later, Baghdad fell within weeks. Yet in both cases, initial battlefield success failed to translate into lasting political stability or effective territorial control.

Twenty years after entering Afghanistan, U.S. forces withdrew in August 2021 while the Taliban returned to power. The episode produced one of the most significant strategic lessons of the century: defeating an army is fundamentally different from governing a society.

Modern military operations increasingly demonstrate that tactical and technological superiority does not automatically generate strategic success. Territorial control, political legitimacy, and the ability to sustain a long-term presence remain decisive factors.

The return of attrition warfare

When Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, much of the international strategic community anticipated a short conflict. Many analysts predicted the rapid fall of Kyiv and the imposition of a political settlement favourable to Moscow.

More than four years later, events have followed a dramatically different trajectory. The conflict has evolved into one of the most significant contemporary examples of attrition warfare, characterised by the gradual erosion of an opponent’s human, material, economic, and psychological capabilities.

Attrition warfare does not necessarily seek immediate victory through the swift destruction of enemy forces. Its objective is to impose continuous losses, progressively weakening operational capacity, industrial production, financial resources, and political will.

The battlefronts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv display scenes many strategists believed belonged to history: extensive trench networks, defensive fortifications, minefields, artillery positions, electronic warfare systems, and prolonged battles fought for limited territorial gains.

In several sectors, weeks of combat have resulted in advances measured in hundreds of metres, demonstrating that technology has not eliminated the importance of physical endurance and operational persistence.

The historical parallels are striking. During the Battle of Verdun in 1916, France and Germany engaged in a campaign designed to wear down the enemy’s capacity to fight. More than a century later, the strategic logic visible across parts of Ukraine remains remarkably similar.

From a human perspective, wars of attrition represent one of the greatest challenges confronting modern societies. Millions experience displacement, infrastructure destruction, economic disruption, and long-term psychological trauma. The battlefield extends far beyond armed forces to encompass the entire national capacity for resistance.

Ukraine demonstrates that 21st-century wars continue to be determined by the ability to sustain military effort over time. Technology may provide initial advantages, but strategic victory increasingly depends upon human resilience, industrial capacity, and political endurance.

Artillery remains the king of the battlefield

Over the past two decades, the proliferation of drones, satellites, real-time surveillance systems, and precision-guided weapons led many analysts to predict the decline of conventional artillery. Recent conflicts have demonstrated precisely the opposite.

In Ukraine, the majority of battlefield casualties continue to be associated with indirect artillery fire. Howitzers, multiple-launch rocket systems, heavy mortars, and guided munitions remain essential for neutralising defensive positions, disrupting logistics networks, and supporting both offensive and defensive operations.

Historically, this is far from unprecedented. During the First World War, artillery accounted for more than half of all combat casualties. During the Second World War, campaigns such as Stalingrad, Kursk, and Berlin further demonstrated the centrality of indirect firepower.

What has changed in the 21st century is not artillery’s relevance, but its integration with digital observation systems, reconnaissance drones, and artificial intelligence.

Today, a low-cost drone can identify a target in real time and transmit coordinates to artillery systems capable of striking within minutes. This convergence has significantly increased battlefield lethality.

Operational evidence observed between 2022 and 2026 indicates that artillery remains the primary instrument of firepower in high-intensity land warfare. Technology has not replaced artillery; it has amplified its effectiveness and destructive potential.

The return of the war economy

One of the most significant strategic revelations of contemporary conflicts has been the speed at which modern arsenals can be depleted.

For decades, many countries assumed future wars would be relatively short and dominated by highly precise weapons systems. Reality has demonstrated a far greater requirement for conventional munitions in sustaining prolonged combat operations.

The war in Ukraine has revealed extraordinary demand for artillery shells, rockets, missiles, and ammunition of every calibre. This reality exposed vulnerabilities within supply chains and forced numerous nations to reassess their industrial production capabilities.

As occurred during the Second World War, productive capacity has once again become a central component of national power. Factories, logistics networks, strategic raw materials, energy security, and transportation systems have re-emerged as decisive factors in sustaining military operations.

Contemporary conflicts demonstrate that industrial capacity remains a first-order strategic multiplier. Wars may be fought on battlefields, but they are sustained by factories, logistics networks, and the economic resilience of states.

The human factor remains decisive

Military history consistently demonstrates that wars are rarely decided by material superiority alone. Weapons, technology, financial resources, and industrial capacity are critical components of military power, but their effectiveness ultimately depends upon the people who employ them.

Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Algeria, Angola, Mozambique, and Vietnam all illustrate a recurring reality: forces that appear materially inferior can impose significant strategic costs on technologically superior adversaries when they combine effective leadership, strong morale, local knowledge, ideological commitment, and a willingness to endure hardship.

Historical evidence from the 20th century and the first quarter of the 21st century suggests that technological superiority significantly increases the probability of tactical success but does not replace troop morale, leadership quality, ideological motivation, terrain familiarity, or societal resilience. Technology amplifies military power; human factors determine its effectiveness and sustainability.

War remains a contest of wills

The accumulated evidence from conflicts between 2001 and 2026 challenges many assumptions that emerged after the Cold War. Technology has transformed the instruments of warfare but has not altered its fundamental nature.

Drones, artificial intelligence, satellites, and precision-guided weapons have expanded the capacity for destruction, surveillance, and operational coordination. They have not eliminated the human, political, economic, and psychological dimensions that ultimately determine strategic outcomes.

The defining lesson of contemporary warfare is clear: victory increasingly belongs not to the actor possessing the most sophisticated weapons, but to the one capable of sustaining political will, economic resilience, industrial output, military endurance, and psychological cohesion longer than its adversary.

Nearly two centuries after Carl von Clausewitz observed that war is a continuation of politics by other means, his insight remains remarkably relevant. Technologies evolve. Weapons become more advanced. Yet the strategic essence of conflict remains profoundly human.

The evidence accumulated between 2001 and 2026 suggests that strategic advantage is gradually shifting away from actors relying solely on technological superiority and toward those capable of integrating technology, industrial production, national mobilisation, psychological resilience, and long-term sustainment. This may prove to be one of the defining military lessons of the 21st century.

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