February 13, 2025
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“I Don’t Know”: Paul Kagame challenges evidence and denies Rwandan troops in the DRC

Kigali, Rwanda – Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s recent interview with CNN has reignited debate over Kigali’s involvement in the crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). When directly asked about the presence of Rwandan troops in the region amid the M23 rebel group’s offensive, Kagame responded evasively: “I don’t know.”

 

AfricaHeadline Reports Team
editorial@africaheadline.com 

 

However, this statement sharply contradicts independent reports, UN investigations, and statements from regional leaders, all of which point to Rwanda’s direct involvement in the conflict. Kagame’s strategy of denial raises questions about his true role in the destabilization of the DRC and the growing diplomatic pressure on his government.

Denial vs. Evidence

A United Nations Group of Experts report states that between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan soldiers are active in the DRC, providing logistical and military support to the M23. “The evidence is undeniable,” an African diplomat told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity. “Rwanda has a history of denial, but the facts speak for themselves: troops are on the ground, training and leading rebel operations.”

The DRC’s Minister of Communication, Patrick Muyaya, strongly rejected Kagame’s remarks. “The Rwandan president may lie to CNN, but he cannot deceive the entire world. Kagame is the only voice still denying this involvement.”

The connection between Rwanda and the M23 dates back more than a decade. The group, composed mainly of Tutsis, is accused of acting as a paramilitary proxy for Kigali in the DRC under the pretext of protecting the Tutsi community from the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu rebel group. However, security analysts argue that Rwanda’s real objective in the region goes beyond security: it is about strategic control over the DRC’s vast mineral resources, including coltan and gold.

“What we are witnessing is a hybrid warfare scenario,” said Jason Stearns, a Central Africa security expert, in an interview with Al Jazeera. “Rwanda is conducting a disguised military campaign under the facade of a rebel insurgency while maintaining plausible deniability in the diplomatic arena.”

Comparisons to Vladimir Putin and the Russian playbook

During the CNN interview, journalist Larry Madowo compared Kagame to Vladimir Putin, suggesting that Rwanda is employing tactics similar to those Russia used in Ukraine—supporting separatist groups to justify military incursions. Kagame laughed off the comparison, saying that “stories” are constantly created about his government.

However, the strategy is familiar. In 2014, Putin repeatedly denied the presence of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine despite overwhelming evidence that Moscow was providing weapons, intelligence, and disguised soldiers. “This is a classic modus operandi,” said Richard Moncrieff, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “Leaders like Putin and Kagame use proxy forces to avoid direct sanctions while expanding their military and economic influence.”

The DRC, however, appears unwilling to tolerate further justifications. Félix Tshisekedi’s government has declared Rwanda’s military presence an “act of aggression”, warning that it may seek broader regional support for a coordinated and robust military response.

Diplomatic pressure and Kagame’s growing isolation

International reaction to Rwanda’s actions has been increasingly severe. The United States, the European Union, and organizations such as SADC have formally urged Kigali to halt its support for the M23.

Angolan President João Lourenço, the official mediator in the conflict, warned that “there will be no peace without the complete withdrawal of foreign forces from the DRC,” in a clear reference to Rwanda. Diplomatic pressure has also come from the African Union, whose Commission Chair, Moussa Faki Mahamat, emphasized that “the sovereignty of the DRC must be respected.”

At the same time, within Rwanda, there is a growing awareness that the DRC crisis could have unexpected consequences. Economic sanctions, cuts in foreign funding, and potential regional isolation could impact the country’s economy, which heavily relies on tourism and international investment.

Kagame’s lies may be running out of time

Paul Kagame may deny his role in the DRC conflict, but the reality on the ground contradicts his words. The increasing volume of evidence, mounting diplomatic pressure, and the threat of a coordinated military retaliation could force Rwanda to step back from its strategy.

The question is no longer whether Rwanda is involved, but rather how much longer Kagame can sustain this narrative before facing global consequences.

As international scrutiny intensifies, Kagame’s diplomatic maneuverability is shrinking. In past years, he was able to leverage Rwanda’s reputation as a post-genocide success story, attracting billions in foreign aid and positioning himself as a stabilizing force in Africa.

However, as accusations of state-backed insurgency in the DRC grow louder, that carefully constructed image is now at risk. Countries that once saw Rwanda as a key ally in regional peacekeeping efforts are reconsidering their partnerships.

A potential fallout could come in the form of economic sanctions, which would have severe implications for Rwanda’s economy.

The country has heavily relied on foreign aid, and a reduction in Western financial assistance could expose structural vulnerabilities in Kagame’s governance model. Moreover, a worsening security situation in the Great Lakes region could disrupt trade and lead to further instability, affecting both Rwanda and its neighbors.

There is also an increasing risk of military escalation. With Kinshasa strengthening its alliances with regional powers, including South Africa and Angola, the possibility of a more direct military confrontation between the DRC and Rwanda is growing.

Tshisekedi’s government has hinted at reinforcing its defense capabilities through arms acquisitions and strategic military partnerships, a move that could significantly alter the balance of power in the region.

For Kagame, maintaining plausible deniability may no longer be a sustainable strategy. With satellite imagery, intelligence reports, and testimonies from captured M23 fighters pointing to direct Rwandan involvement, continued denial could further erode his credibility.

His ability to navigate this crisis will depend on whether he chooses diplomacy over military adventurism, or if he risks further alienation by doubling down on his current approach.

Ultimately, the growing resistance against Rwanda’s interference in the DRC marks a turning point in Kagame’s leadership.

For years, he has operated with near impunity on the regional stage, but the tide may be shifting. The question now is whether Kagame can retreat without losing face, or if his persistence in this conflict will push Rwanda into deeper diplomatic and economic isolation.

As the crisis escalates, Kagame’s long-standing political calculations may prove costly. If regional players and international powers unite against his actions, the repercussions could extend beyond the battlefield, potentially shaking the very foundations of his rule.

 

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