Kenya fiscal reforms may have to be softened after tax revolt violence

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Kenyan President William Ruto may have to give up on his goal of a balanced budget by 2027 after an unprecedented revolt against his tax measures, according to an analyst.

“Hard fiscal reforms may have to be softened,” said Daniel van Dalen, analyst at Signal Risk. “The deficit may not narrow as quickly as they want, but at least you are not risking social unrest, and you are also able to meet debt obligations.”

Kenya’s government is mulling its next steps after furious nationwide protests against Ruto’s Finance Bill 2024 sparked a violent response, leading to the deaths of at least 39 people. according to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights. 

The president is caught between a rock and a hard place, given that he must meet loan obligations, fulfil IMF conditionalities, keep his cabinet happy, and appease furious protestors. 

In a statement on 26 June, Ruto already said that he had declined to sign the controversial Finance Bill 2024 which, through aggressive taxation on basic goods including cooking oil and baby nappies, would have brought an estimated annual $2.7bn increase in government revenue.