Mali’s economy set to expand 5.5% as gold recovery boosts growth despite security risks

Mali’s economy is forecast to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by a recovery in gold production, agricultural output and mining revenues. But persistent insecurity, refinancing pressures and weak infrastructure threaten to undermine one of West Africa’s more resilient economic recoveries.

BAMAKO — Mali’s economy is heading for another year of robust expansion as a rebound in gold production and stronger agricultural activity help offset the impact of insecurity, political uncertainty and constrained access to international financing.

The International Monetary Fund projects real gross domestic product growth of 5.5% in 2026, accelerating to 5.7% in 2027. The World Bank expects a more moderate expansion of 5% this year, reflecting different assumptions about mining output, agricultural performance and security conditions.

The forecasts highlight the resilience of an economy that has continued to expand despite years of political instability, regional tensions and disruptions to trade and energy supplies.

For Mali’s military-led government under Assimi Goïta, the challenge is to translate stronger mineral revenues into sustainable investment, fiscal stability and broader economic opportunities.

Gold Recovery Drives Economic Momentum

Gold remains the backbone of Mali’s export economy and a major source of government revenue.

A settlement reached in November 2025 between the government and the operator of the country’s largest gold mine paved the way for a recovery in production following a prolonged dispute over taxation and mining regulations.

Under the agreement, payments totalling 244 billion CFA francs were secured alongside a 10-year renewal of the mining licence.

The IMF expects production at the operation to recover to at least 10 metric tons in 2026, compared with less than three tons in 2025.

The recovery could contribute approximately 0.2 percentage points to economic growth while generating additional fiscal revenue equivalent to 0.6% of GDP.

Mali is also seeking to expand lithium production, positioning itself to benefit from international demand for battery minerals and energy-storage technologies.

However, higher mining revenues will depend on regulatory stability, reliable electricity supplies and the government’s ability to maintain investor confidence.

Fiscal Consolidation Faces Refinancing Pressures

Mali’s fiscal outlook points to gradual consolidation, although financing conditions remain challenging.

The IMF projects a budget deficit equivalent to 2.4% of GDP in 2026, below the 3% regional benchmark established by the West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Public debt is forecast at approximately 40.8% of GDP, suggesting a relatively moderate debt burden by regional standards.

Yet refinancing risks remain significant.

Around 1.29 trillion CFA francs in regional bonds and syndicated loans fall due in 2026, increasing pressure on the Treasury to secure financing while maintaining spending on infrastructure and essential public services.

Higher gold revenues could provide some relief, but the government’s capacity to manage debt maturities and improve tax collection will remain critical to macroeconomic stability.

Agriculture and Infrastructure Hold the Key to Diversification

Beyond mining, agriculture remains central to Mali’s economic structure, accounting for an average of 32.1% of GDP between 2015 and 2024, according to the African Development Bank.

Services contributed approximately 36.8%, while industry represented 24.2%.

The figures underline the importance of agricultural productivity, food processing, irrigation and transport infrastructure in reducing the economy’s dependence on commodity exports.

Security-related disruptions remain a major obstacle.

Attacks on transport routes, fuel-supply interruptions and unreliable electricity provision have increased operating costs for businesses and weakened domestic supply chains.

These constraints also limit the ability of smaller enterprises to participate in the country’s economic recovery.

African Development Bank Targets $800 Million in Investment

Infrastructure investment could provide an additional source of growth.

The African Development Bank plans to mobilise approximately $800 million through its own resources and co-financing partners under its 2026–2031 country strategy.

Priority sectors include energy, transport and agriculture.

An indicative programme covering 2026–2028 identifies five sovereign operations worth approximately $419 million.

The investments could help address structural bottlenecks, improve productivity and encourage private-sector participation, although their economic impact will depend on project execution and security conditions.

Growth Outlook Remains Positive, but Social Pressures Persist

Despite the improving macroeconomic outlook, the benefits of growth remain unevenly distributed.

The World Bank estimates that approximately 33.8% of Mali’s population will remain in extreme poverty in 2026, underscoring the limited transmission of mining-led growth into household incomes and employment.

The divergence between expanding GDP and persistent poverty presents a central policy challenge for the government.

Mali’s medium-term prospects will depend on whether stronger mineral revenues can finance improvements in electricity, agriculture, logistics and public services while preserving fiscal discipline.

For investors, the recovery in gold production and the emergence of lithium offer opportunities in an economy with considerable natural-resource potential.

For policymakers, the more consequential test is whether those resources can support a broader productive base and reduce vulnerability to security shocks and commodity-price volatility.

With growth projected to exceed 5% in both 2026 and 2027, Mali’s economic recovery is gaining momentum. Whether that expansion develops into a durable transformation will depend less on the volume of gold extracted than on how effectively its revenues are invested.